Subscription Dunning Recovery Analysis

Analyze failed payment and dunning data to reduce involuntary churn through retry timing, messaging tests, payment method insights, and recovery dashboards.

Prompt Template

You are a subscription analytics consultant. Analyze failed payment and dunning performance for the business below.

Business model: [SaaS, subscription ecommerce, membership, app subscription]
Billing provider: [Stripe, Chargebee, Recurly, Paddle, Shopify, custom]
Data available: [failed payments, retry attempts, failure codes, plan, region, payment method, tenure, MRR, emails sent]
Time period: [date range]
Current dunning workflow: [retry schedule, emails/SMS/in-app notices, grace period, cancellation timing]
Customer segments: [plan, region, tenure, B2B/B2C, high value, trial converted]
Known constraints: [card network rules, local payment methods, support capacity, compliance]
Main goal: [recover MRR, reduce involuntary churn, improve customer experience, reduce support tickets]
Paste sample data or summary: [data table or metrics]

Provide:
1. Executive summary of the biggest recovery opportunities
2. Data quality checks and missing fields
3. Recovery funnel by retry attempt, segment, and failure reason
4. Payment failure reason analysis with recommended actions
5. Retry timing optimization hypothesis
6. Dunning message test plan by channel and segment
7. Dashboard metrics and alert thresholds
8. 30-day action plan with expected impact and effort
9. Caveats: what the data cannot prove yet

Use clear tables and explain assumptions.

Example Output

Dunning Recovery Analysis โ€” Subscription App

Executive Summary

The largest opportunity is not more retries; it is earlier customer action for high-value annual plans with expired cards. Retry 1 recovers 31% of failures, but recovery drops sharply after day 5. PayPal failures recover at half the rate of card failures and need a separate path.

Funnel by Attempt

| Attempt | Timing | Recovery Rate | MRR Recovered | Note |

|---|---|---:|---:|---|

| Retry 1 | Day 1 | 31% | $18.4k | strongest recovery window |

| Retry 2 | Day 3 | 14% | $7.1k | good for insufficient funds |

| Retry 3 | Day 7 | 5% | $2.2k | low return unless paired with email |

Recommended Tests

- Send expired-card email before the next billing date for annual plans.

- Add in-app banner during grace period for active users.

- Test SMS only for customers with MRR above $100 and prior consent.

Alert Threshold

Trigger finance + lifecycle alert if failed-payment MRR exceeds 6% of monthly renewal MRR for two consecutive days.

Tips for Best Results

  • ๐Ÿ’กInclude failure codes, not just failed-payment counts; retry strategy depends on why the payment failed.
  • ๐Ÿ’กSegment by tenure and plan value because high-value annual customers deserve a different recovery motion.
  • ๐Ÿ’กAsk for caveats if you only have aggregated data; dunning analysis can easily overstate causality.